Buffering New Zealand’s agricultural sector against seasonal variability, rainfall deficits, and downpours is becoming increasingly important, and the sheep and beef sector may be the solution.
This is the thought pattern of AbacusBio’s farm consultant Simon Glennie, who said as climate variability continues, the requirement for dairy farmers to have a buffer for annual feed shortages remains present.
“Expansions and contractions of demand for grazing, land and feed supplements will flow through to the sheep and beef sector, adding even more volatility, both for farmers themselves, but also for the processing and input supply industries.”
Glennie notes that while economic drivers in this country have always forced the sheep and beef sector to play second fiddle to the dairy industry, if both are to thrive, they need to work together.
“There are two elements we’re talking about here: long term change to a warming climate, and greater inter-seasonal variability.”
Low-cost feed for dairy farms through sheep and beef sector dairy support is a viable solution for the dairy industry buffering the feed shortfall, as this way production for cows can be retained and cost variability can be largely reduced.
Glennie explained that after the Global Financial Crisis, banks started taking a much closer look at cash flow, and a sharper focus on infrastructure costs meant dairy farmers had to think more creatively about how to source feed.
Grain systems, he said, are another way that the sheep and beef sector can contribute, as it makes more sense for dairy farmers to buy in grain rather than grow it themselves.
“It makes the dairy platform that much bigger, without the consent process.”
With less farmland now being developed, stocking rates are not seeing major change. Sheep and beef stocking numbers may shift as the need for dairy support increases. Over time, ewes have become bigger, lambs have become heavier, and multiples are more common. Beef farmers have also targeted growth rates in progeny which increases cow liveweight over time.
“The heavier weights of maternal livestock compound the downward pressure on livestock numbers able to be carried.”
Glennie added there is still a place for beef cows in utilising feed that is less suited for other stock classes. Carbon forestry is also affecting land use in areas that would typically suit beef cows and breeding ewes.
Farmers’ attitudes toward providing dairy support are mixed, with decisions often hinging on the relative margins of trading and breeding versus dairy support, keeping in mind that dry stock farms use land that dairy grazing doesn’t.
“When fitting dairy support into a system where more variability exists, the dairy support enterprise demands the first bite of the cherry. Feed is prioritised to dairy first, as traded supplement or feed to dairy support stock.”
Sheep and beef farmers with dairy support enterprises will increasingly utilise sheep and beef enterprises to buffer against variability.
“As a consequence, we ought to expect that additional feed will be ultimately produced to sell as farmers trade off between options. It’s not easy to weigh it all up.”
Ultimately, the enterprises with the lowest marginal returns or poorest fit will decline. At present, Glennie said, that’s sheep and beef, but he emphasised that farmers are highly adaptable. “They adjust what they need to, when they need to, and are good at rolling with the punches”.
Overall, he stressed that dairy support, including the likelihood of increased demand for traded feed, is an option the sheep and beef sector needs to seriously consider, and the need is not going to lessen anytime soon.
Contact Simon Glennie about your NZ farm needs: 027 246 4630 or sglennie@abacusbio.co.nz.
