Robusta coffee has grown from 28% to 44% of world coffee production in 30 years, yet it gets little research investment. We worked with World Coffee Research to assess whether today’s breeding efforts can keep up with future demand, and what a global, collaborative breeding program could add.
The challenge
Demand for coffee has grown steadily for three decades. Much of that growth has been met by robusta, the hardier, lower-priced species typically used in blends and soluble coffee. If current trends continue, robusta could overtake arabica as the main commercial coffee species in the coming years.
That growth has come from very few places. Brazil and Vietnam drove most of it, and six countries now produce 95% of the world’s robusta by volume. For arabica, the six largest producers account for 78%. Meanwhile, some smaller producers have fallen away. A group of small African countries that once supplied 4% of global robusta have seen their output halve since 1990–91.
Climate change adds to the risk. Recent research suggests robusta may be more sensitive to heat and climate variability than once thought. And coffee research as a whole is badly underfunded. A 2023 analysis estimated global coffee R&D spending at about $115 million a year, against a farm-gate value of around $200 billion.
World Coffee Research wanted to understand three things: where robusta supply and demand are heading, what buyers and farmers need from new varieties, and whether a global, collaborative breeding program could help close the gaps.
Our approach
We combined data analysis with interviews across the supply chain.
1. Global robusta landscape
We analysed International Coffee Organization (ICO) data on production, consumption and trade from 1990–91 to 2021–22. We also estimated robusta yield and area planted by country, since FAO data doesn’t separate the two species. We also estimated each region’s preference for robusta from the share of green bean imports that are robusta.
2. Forecasting supply and demand to 2040
We built two supply scenarios. A status quo scenario assumes slower yield growth in Brazil and Vietnam because of climate change, and a 5% fall in planted area elsewhere. A supply-activated scenario assumes better prices and yields bring an extra 10% of land into robusta in every country. We paired these with two demand scenarios, based on regional consumption growth at 90% and 120% of the last decade’s rates.
3. What buyers want
We interviewed eleven major commercial buyers of robusta, including roasters, exporters and traders, about how they source robusta and what they need from it.
4. The variety innovation landscape
We interviewed seven organisations that represent or research for robusta farmers: two farmer representative groups and five breeding and research groups. We asked about their priorities, their progress and the barriers they face.
What we found
A shortfall is likely. We forecast global robusta production in 2040 of between about 85 and 108 million bags a year. Three of the four supply and demand scenarios produce a shortage, ranging from 12.5 million to 35.1 million bags. Across all four, the average is a shortage of 16 million bags. Only one scenario, where demand grows at close to recent rates and extra supply is activated, gives a small surplus of 2%.
Brazil and Vietnam can’t carry the load alone. It is unlikely those two countries can sustain global growth on their own. Even if they could, supply would become more concentrated still, raising supply and climate risk for coffee companies.
Buyers want price, volume and consistency. Roasters see robusta mostly as a commodity. They use as much as consumers will accept in blends, and focus on avoiding defects and off-flavours rather than on special cup qualities. Volume of supply matters more to them than origin.
Quality will matter more. As roasters substitute robusta for more expensive arabica, the supply of higher-quality robusta must rise, or blends will lose quality and risk consumer rejection. Buyers are also asking for deforestation-free supply and fewer chemical inputs. That means more yield from the same or less land, and more pest and disease resistance.
Farmers and breeders put yield first. Every breeding program we interviewed ranked yield as its most important trait, with disease resistance and drought tolerance also ranking highly. Farmers are also interested in quality, driven by premium prices for fine robusta, and in bigger beans. Breeding programs have not yet responded strongly to quality signals, partly because of trade-offs with yield and pest resistance.
Breeding programs face common barriers. These include low farmer profitability, climate pressures, few regulations to support new variety releases, limited technical capacity, poor access to germplasm and clonal planting material, severe funding limits, and few chances to collaborate globally.
What the paper recommends
- Focus on yield and yield-related traits. Gains in yield, and in traits such as climate resilience that protect yield, are likely to benefit both farmers and roasters.
- Invest beyond Brazil and Vietnam. Sustained yield gains in other producing countries, especially among the top six that already have land and labour in robusta, could have a large impact. Investment in countries with stagnant yields may bring greater returns, though at higher risk.
- Breed now for future quality needs. If robusta is to replace more arabica, breeding goals need to address higher quality, and possibly bigger beans alongside yield.
- Research robusta’s climate resilience. More large-scale work is needed on climate-sensitive flowering and growth phases, to deliver varieties that cope with a changing climate.
- Help smaller African producers return to robusta. Partnerships between roasters or traders and farming cooperatives, or vertically integrated operations, could serve Africa’s strong demand for soluble coffee and other niche markets.
- Build a global, collaborative breeding effort. A program that improves interaction, removes barriers to technology and shares genetic resources could speed up existing national programs. It should not be one-size-fits-all. Different countries will need different kinds of support.
Why it matters
A likely supply gap, rising sustainability pressure and low existing investment together make a strong case for expanding robusta breeding worldwide. Any global program will need to align the future sourcing needs of buyers with the breeding strategies of producing countries. That is hard, because roasters tend to see robusta as a substitute for arabica, while farmers and breeders see it as a product in its own right. Yield is the shared ground where both can win.
Read the full report: Opportunities for robusta variety innovation, published by World Coffee Research.
Following publication
World Coffee Research has continued to develop its robusta breeding programme:
- Robusta breeding: a year underway (2025)
- The roots of Robusta: cultivating growth for a species once overlooked (2024)
- World Coffee Research sees robusta on the horizon (2023)
How we can help
AbacusBio helps research organisations, industry bodies and agribusinesses plan breeding and genetic improvement, using approaches such as market and supply forecasting, stakeholder interviews and breeding program review. If you’re weighing up where breeding investment will make the most difference: talk to our team
